USAID early warning mechanism predicts surge in food insecurity

NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec 21 – The prolonged drought which hit some parts of Kenya will drive high assistance needs through 2022, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) has warned.

FEWSNET, an initiative of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), is concerned that food insecurity in 2022 will worsen and spread, estimating that 3-4 million people would require humanitarian food aid in Kenya.

The network attributed the situation to the elevated likelihood of a fourth consecutive below-average season during the March to May 2022 long rains

FEWSNET noted the October to December 2021 short rains had largely failed, marking the third consecutive below average season across pastoral and marginal agricultural areas of Eastern and Northern Kenya.

“In pastoral areas, very low pasture and water resources have driven atypical livestock migration, rapid declines in livestock health and productivity, and excess livestock deaths. The drought also follows the temporary closure of livestock markets in early 2020 due to COVID-19, which already suppressed formal livestock trade in the short-term,” FEWSNET said Monday.

On September 8, the government declared drought, a national disaster following a meeting between President Uhuru Kenyatta and leaders from Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) which were worse hit.

The drought was declared in 29 counties classified under the ASALs where food insecurity had been experienced due to inconsistent rains.

FEWSNET added that large-scale humanitarian assistance and livelihoods support interventions were urgently required to cover current needs in northern and eastern Kenya,. The network said assistance should be sustained throughout 2022.

“Rainfall in October and November was less than 60 percent of the 40-year average across much of northern and eastern Kenya, with some areas registering a significant delay to the start of season or no onset of rainfall at all,” the report stated.

It added that while the distribution of food assistance, expansion of the Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP), and the delivery of water and livestock feed are helping to prevent more severe food insecurity, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist, with worst-affected households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

FEWSNET further said that increased rainfall in December has improved conditions, but deficits remain severe at 30 to 75 percent of average.

“In pastoral areas, rangeland resources are significantly below median levels and monitored water points range from empty to well below median depths. Pastoralists must trek livestock greater distances, and National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) sentinel site data suggest return trekking distances from grazing areas to water points are around 100-400 percent above average,” it said.

It further pointed out that pastoral households are facing lower access to food given their outright loss of livestock and/or lower livestock value amid poor body conditions.

In August 2021, the NDMA long rains assessment revealed poor households in pastoral areas owned around 2-8 tropical livestock units (TLUs)1, which was already roughly 35 percent lower than the long-term average due to losses in previous seasons. Reports suggest atypical livestock deaths are already occurring.

FEWSNET said that seasonal price trends indicate that terms of trade would further worsen during the January to March dry season, as food prices rise and livestock values fall.

“In marginal agricultural areas, the short rains season supports up to 65 percent of annual crop production, which is a key source of food and income for poor households. Given the extremely poor performance of the season, many households did not plant, and among those who did, most crops have wilted or failed to germinate,” the FEWSNET report noted.

In October, the (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) OCHA reported 28,000 people received food and livelihood assistance, and in the same month the government reported distributing around 12.46 MT of food and purchasing over 8,000 heads of cattle from farmers as part of an offtake program.

Additionally, around 100,000 households enrolled in HSNP in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera continue to receive Sh5,400 every two months, FEWSNET said.

The agency said plans were underway for more significant assistance in the coming months, including an emergency relief cash transfer program through the Kenyan government, through which 360,696 households will receive Sh 3,000 monthly.

The government also signed an agreement with the Kenya Red Cross Society to purchase and slaughter more than 75,000 weak livestock and distribute the meat as relief food to over 766,000 households.