How NASA shall win ths election, the magic numbers that have statehouse in panic

By Haron Getui,

Is 8.5 million votes going to be the magic number for this election? Is NASA going to take it in the first round or are we going to have a runoff? What do the numbers tell us and what do we expect come August 8^th 2017? An analysis of voting patterns in Kenya.

Download PDF >> Voting patterns Kenya 2017

	COUNTY	REG. VOTERS 2017	VOTER TURNOUT (%)	EXPECTED VOTES TO BE CAST	UHURU 2013 (%)	RAILA MUDAVADI 2016 (%)	EXPECTED UHURU 2017	EXPECTED RAILA 2017
	JUBILEE STRONGHOLDS
1.	KIAMBU	1173593	91	1067970	90.21	8.17	963416	87253
2.	NAKURU	948668	89	844315	80.19	17.9	675452	151132
3.	MERU	712378	89	634016	89.41	7.87	566874	49897
4.	NYERI	460806	93	428550	96.33	1.89	412822	8100
5.	MURANGA	590775	94	555329	95.92	2.57	532672	14272
6.	UASIN GISHU	451485	86	388277	74.26	23.62	288335	91711
7.	KERICHO	379815	91	345631	90.74	7.29	313626	25197
8.	KIRINYAGA	351162	91	319557	95.99	1.59	306743	5081
9.	NANDI	349340	90	314406	81.52	16.11	256304	50651
10.	NYANDARUA	336322	93	312780	97.11	1.42	303741	4442
11.	BOMET	325606	90	293045	92.68	5.09	271594	14916
12.	EMBU	315668	88	277788	89.0	8.31	247231	23084
13.	LAIKIPIA	239497	90	215547	85.49	12.87	184271	27741
14.	BARINGO	227918	91	207405	87.93	10.17	182371	21093
15.	THARAKA NITHI	216522	89	192705	92.38	5.37	178021	10348
16.	WEST POKOT	178989	90	161090	73.33	23.22	118127	37405
17.	ELGEYO MARAKWET	178975	92	164657	92.07	5.38	151600	8859
18.	MANDERA	168478	84	141522	92.93	4.36	131516	6170
TOTAL		7605997		6864590			6084716	637352
	NASA STRONGHOLDS
1.	KAKAMEGA	746877	84	627377	2.63	94.37	16500	592056
2.	MACHAKOS	627168	86	539365	9.58	86.77	51671	468007
3.	MOMBASA	596485	66	393680	23.79	71.35	93657	280890
4.	BUNGOMA	559897	86	481511	12.25	83.56	58985	402351
5.	KISUMU	548868	92	504959	1.33	97.74	6716	493547
6.	KILIFI	510484	84	428807	10.72	84.84	45968	363800
7.	KITUI	477655	85	406007	14.76	81.06	59927	329109
8.	KISII	544753	85	463040	27.42	68.68	126966	318016
9.	NYAMIRA	279685	84	234935	29.47	66.98	69235	157360
10.	HOMA BAY	476150	94	447581	0.24	99.11	1074	443598
11.	SIAYA	447745	92	411925	0.31	98.72	1277	406652
12.	MAKUENI	421180	85	358003	5.02	91.71	17972	328325
13.	MIGORI	388967	93	361739	9.97	88.75	36065	321043
14.	KWALE	282436	72	203354	14.04	81.8	28551	166344
15.	VIHIGA	267481	83	222009	1.52	95.63	3375	212307
16.	TAITA TAVETA	155904	82	127841	13.18	82.68	16849	105699
17.	TANA RIVER	118189	81	95733	34.71	62.12	33229	59469
18.	LAMU	70224	85	59690	40.02	53.4	23888	31875
19.	BUSIA	347911	88	306162	3.71	94.04	11359	287915
TOTAL		7868059		6673718			703264	5768363
	SWING AREAS
1.	TRANS NZOIA	339832	82	278662	37.24	58.91	103774	164160
2.	NAIROBI	2304386	81	1866553	46.75	50.56	872614	943730
3.	KAJIADO	409266	90	368339	52.36	45.06	192862	165974
4.	NAROK	347427	90	312684	46.38	50.48	145023	157843
5.	TURKANA	188617	78	147121	29.85	68.06	43916	100131
6.	GARISSA	132486	84	111288	45.34	49.09	50458	54631
7.	WAJIR	155915	84	130969	38.83	49.9	50855	65354
8.	MARSABIT	143541	86	123445	47.18	49.1	58241	60612
9.	SAMBURU	79477	88	69940	40.94	57.85	28633	40460
10.	ISIOLO	72548	88	63842	55.41	29.92	35375	19102
TOTAL		4173495		3472843			1581751	1943997
GRAND		19647551		17011151			8369731	8349712
TOTAL

NOTE

These numbers are for the top 3 candidates in 2013 according to their current alliances/coalitions. The remainder of votes and percentages are assumed to be shared amongst the other 6 candidates and spoilt votes like it were in 2013.

These figures accommodate an error margin of +-2%. These error margins take into account the dead voters removed from iebc and spoiled votes amongst other mitigating issues.

The required 50% plus one vote is an equivalent of 8,505,576 votes which according to this analysis will not be achieved.

What has changed in these elections according to regions then?

Isaac Ruto of Bomet has moved to NASA.
Ole Kiyapi isn’t in the race and Maasais seem leaning to NASA.
Meru, Coast, Maasai and parts of rift valley are likely to see NASA improve on the voter percentage that they got in 2013.
NASA are likely to reap big if they galvanize their strongholds and improve their voter turnout to an average of over 80% like most of the jubilee strongholds. If this happens then NASA is likely to cross the 50% plus one mark in the first round else we are likely to have a runoff in the presidential elections. JUBILEE has the disadvantage that they have a very small room for improvement given that their strongholds posted very high voter turnout in 2013.
Other major defectors like Alfred Mutua, Ken Lusaka, Chris Obure, Ababu Namwamba, Gideon Mungaro from NASA/CORD to JUBILEE has been assumed inconsequential or rather been neutralized with those who have since defected from JUBILEE and its allied parties to NASA.

With all the above in mind, it is clear that NASA is more likely to carry the day in a free fair and credible elections given the troubles which JUBILEE is currently in; food shortage, inflation, high cost of living and corruption.

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